As we learned in 2016 (and 2000!), The really important thing is Electoral College.
Last week, two major political prognosticators at the Cook Political Report – Amy Walter and 538’s Nate Silver – released updated versions of the election chart. And the image they portrayed for Trump is terrible.
“To win electoral college, Biden would have to win only 26 percent of the toss-up states / districts, but Trump would have to win over 75 percent of them. In other words, Trump has little room for error.
The silver analysis is like that too.
But that’s what they do There The current election map favors Biden. Trump is not only winning traditional Democratic states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 and likely returning to the Democratic column in 2020, but former Republican strongholds Arizona, North Carolina and Texas are also playing honestly for Biden.
All of which gives the 46-year-old Democratic nominee, as Walter rightly puts it, more ways to get the 270 electoral votes needed to become the 46th president.
Trails So Trump still exists – especially in the three rust belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) by holding down the status quo.
But there are far fewer ways for Trump than for Biden. With each passing week, the number of good election map options for Trump continues to decline.
Point: The good news for Trump is that Election Day is yet another way. If the elections were held today, he would lose faithfully – in the popular vote and in the Electoral College.