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The election map is getting worse for Trump

electoral college explainer animation orig_00002708
Barbara C. Arroyo

As we learned in 2016 (and 2000!), The really important thing is Electoral College.

Unfortunately for Trump, the chances of winning the 270 electoral votes he needs to win a second term are dim at least for the moment.

Last week, two major political prognosticators at the Cook Political Report – Amy Walter and 538’s Nate Silver – released updated versions of the election chart. And the image they portrayed for Trump is terrible.

“With less than five months to run for election, President Trump is a serious underdog for re-election” Walter wrote, Who voted 248 electoral votes solidly or toward Biden, and 204 strongly or favorably on Trump.

“To win electoral college, Biden would have to win only 26 percent of the toss-up states / districts, but Trump would have to win over 75 percent of them. In other words, Trump has little room for error.

The silver analysis is like that too.

“Overall – the ubiquitous states that polls are going to be the same as in 2016 – Biden is leading 368 electoral votes, while Trump is in the lead with a total of 170 electoral votes.” He writes.
To be clear: Neither Walter nor Silver (or I) have said that the election is over or that Trump cannot win. Of course, there is a possibility of Silver activity Biden can win in “landslide.” If the current toss-up states all go to him, “Trump’s electoral college victory, depending on how the race moves between now and November.

But that’s what they do There The current election map favors Biden. Trump is not only winning traditional Democratic states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 and likely returning to the Democratic column in 2020, but former Republican strongholds Arizona, North Carolina and Texas are also playing honestly for Biden.

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All of which gives the 46-year-old Democratic nominee, as Walter rightly puts it, more ways to get the 270 electoral votes needed to become the 46th president.

Trails So Trump still exists – especially in the three rust belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) by holding down the status quo.

But there are far fewer ways for Trump than for Biden. With each passing week, the number of good election map options for Trump continues to decline.

Point: The good news for Trump is that Election Day is yet another way. If the elections were held today, he would lose faithfully – in the popular vote and in the Electoral College.

About the author

Barbara C. Arroyo

Barbara C. Arroyo

I'm a writer, editor and newsroom leader working at the intersection of tech and media, editorial and product, journalism and management. I am driven to transform our industry for the future, develop and mentor our people, build compassionate and innovative organizational cultures, and put readers and communities at the center of it all. I also have a love of storytelling and creative work, and refuse to pick one or the other.

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