October 24, 2021

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Strange uncertainty in Germany: Angela Merkel’s successor to be defined between the “Semaphore” alliance or “Jamaica”

Social Democrat (SPD) candidate Olaf Scholes congratulates German Chancellor after the first general election polls in Germany (Photo: REUTERS)

(Chicago – Special for Infobe) – It was Sunday A clear winner in the general election in Germany. His name was Olaf Scholes. Got it Renew his almost sluggish Social Democratic Party (SPD) In a few months of campaigning and received more votes than any other candidate. He was able to increase his chances of being able to reach Chancellor in a few weeks. He led the resurrection of his party Many think he deserves the chance to form a coalition government Outgoing President Angela Merkel has ended the 16-year rule of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

But They have no arm lashes, The candidate who led the CDU this time, and despite losing the election – by a narrow margin of 1.6% – firmly believes it is a “technical tie” He too can form a government coalition.

This leaves everything in the hands of the third and fourth place parties: Green Party (PV) and Independent Democrats (FDP). They will decide who will lead the new government. In their hands is the fate of both Sholes and Lashet. For now – and until the need becomes sectarian – it is clear The far right of the AfD is leftReceived fewer votes than in the previous 2017 elections. And the Left Party It had the worst ending in years.

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Social Democrat Scholes feels he deserves to have the first option of forming a government and said in his message between Sunday night’s celebrations in Berlin: “The citizens of this country want a change. They want the next president to be the SPD candidate”. But did not want to give the Conservative lash. Although his party did worse than expected from opinion polls, which saw them at gaining about a third of the vote in post-war Germany. It is the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) – collectively called the Union – Does not fall below 20%, Which opens up the possibility of ruling. He also believes he has the right to form the next alliance. “Voting in favor of the union is a vote against the left-led federal government We will do everything we can to form a government led by the union“, He said.

Second-placed Christian Democratic Union (CDU) candidate Armin Lachet (photo: Reuters)
Second-placed Christian Democratic Union (CDU) candidate Armin Lachet (photo: Reuters)

This represents a political stalemate that polls have already predicted during the campaign. A draw probably leads to Germany Several weeks of difficult negotiations During this time various alliances will be investigated. These elections marked the end of an era of strong parties and large voters, as well as stable two-party alliances. Most future ruling coalitions may have three parties Compromises will be more difficult to find than in the past. “It seems that voters do not want any party to rule as they wish. They want leaders of different parties. Keep an eye on each other so no one is in a hurry. The right form of control and balance ”, analyzed by the prestigious German newspaper Glass.

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The two most likely alliances are those known in German political terms “Traffic lights”, By the colors that identify the parties: SPD, Green and FDP trio (Red, green and yellow respectively); Wave “Jamaica”, And will be coordinated by the tonality of groups that match the flag of that country Union, Green and FDP (black, green and yellow respectively). There is a third option that has ruled the “giant coalition” over the past eight years between the union and the SPD. Although both parties made it clear during the campaign They have no desire to re-establish such a government, at least not with a younger partner. What is the future of Germany in the post-Merkel period? Conservative-liberal government with green? Or the SPD-Green Alliance with a liberal revision from the FDP?

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FDP leader Christian Lindner made that clear at the beginning of the campaign The potential president wanted an alliance with the union under Lashett. Both are friends and work well. In addition, both parties have joined the ruling coalition in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, which has been governor of Lashset for the past four years. And there are big ideological coincidences. Both parties They want to avoid tax increases For example, they have a climate strategy that relies heavily on technological advances along with cutting red tape to build wind or solar farms.

Green Party candidate Annalena Barbach has an important negotiation letter with her ally, the Liberals' Robert Hapek.
Green Party candidate Annalena Barbach has an important negotiation letter with her ally, the Liberals’ Robert Hapek.

Therefore, The position of the Green Party will be decisive. But there are internal differences. Party leader and candidate Annalena Barbach has already said Sees the biggest political coincidence with the SPDSupporter of the party’s co-chairman Robert Hapek Keep all options open. In Berlin, it is speculated that Habek wants to be the next economy minister, regardless of who his government partner is. Despite the Greens’ difficult position in alliance with the Union and the FDP, they can achieve a lot in negotiations. For example, They may leave more ministries than those associated with them because of their electoral weight And handle everything related to the environment.

Next are the days of lofty announcements and flu talks. Both Scholes and Lachet want to sound like “boss”. They must be negotiators with broad but firm, clear boundaries, and not only can they lead Germany, they can be at the forefront. EU engine. In short, beyond the colors of the coalition, the next president is as close as possible to Angela Merkel, the woman who has successfully managed Germany for the past 16 years.

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